The NFL assigned its week 2 crews Tuesday afternoon. Most fans will never hear who they are. Here is every game, the referee, what he throws, and what the app’s call looks like once the crew is in it.
Two things to know before the list. The rate for each referee is the flags he throws himself over his career (delay of game, roughing, the personal fouls; the umpire and the wings throw the holds and the false starts), and the league average for a referee is 1.6 a game. And the crew histories against these specific teams are small samples in September; where a matchup has fewer than five prior meetings the number is given as what it is, a note, not a read.
Thursday
Lions at Bills, Ron Torbert. 91 games worked. Torbert throws 1.5 flags a game himself, right at the average, and his crew’s most common calls are false start, unnecessary roughness and offensive holding. He has worked Buffalo six times and Detroit five; both offenses have been flagged about half a time a game less than their baseline with him. His record tilts 1.1 points of win probability toward Detroit, which is not much. The app’s call: Buffalo 69 percent, 27 to 20.
Sunday
Panthers at Falcons, Alex Moore. 69 games. Moore throws more flags himself than any referee working this week, 2.1 a game against the 1.6 average, and offensive holding is his signature call (82 over his career), with unnecessary roughness second. Carolina’s offense has been flagged 1.2 fewer times a game than its baseline with him over four meetings; Atlanta’s one prior meeting is too small to read. His record tilts 2.2 points toward Carolina, and the app’s call is close: Atlanta 44 percent, Carolina 27 to 25.
Saints at Ravens, Clete Blakeman. 90 games. Delay of game leads his sheet by a wide margin (60), then unnecessary roughness and ineligible man downfield, which is a crew that watches the line. Seven meetings with each team, neither offense far from its baseline with him. Tilt under a point. The app’s call: Baltimore 67 percent, 27 to 21.
Vikings at Bears, Land Clark. 86 games. Roughing the passer is second on his sheet (40) behind delay of game, often enough that both pass rushes should expect it. The number that matters here: in seven prior meetings, Chicago’s offense has been flagged 1.4 more times a game than its baseline with Clark’s crew, the largest offensive swing on the week 2 board, and the app has posted a penalty-risk flag on Chicago’s offense for it. Minnesota, three meetings, one flag a game under baseline. Clark’s record tilts 2.7 points toward Minnesota, the biggest crew lean of the week. The app’s call is still Chicago, 74 percent, 29 to 20.
Bengals at Texans, Adrian Hill. 87 games. Hill’s crew tied for the third-most flags of week 1 (17 at Seattle), and roughing the passer is his second call (38). Cincinnati has ten prior meetings with him, the deepest history on the board, and its offense has been flagged a full flag a game less than baseline in them; the app calls that a strong signal. Houston, four meetings, small. Tilt 1.8 points toward Cincinnati. The app’s call: Houston 57 percent, 29 to 26, the highest projected total of the week.
Steelers at Patriots, Carl Cheffers. 89 games. Cheffers’s crew called 19 in Dallas at New York last week, second most on the slate, and his own sheet runs delay of game, unnecessary roughness, roughing the passer, then intentional grounding (21), which is unusual and worth watching in a game projected at 44 total points. Pittsburgh’s offense has been flagged 1.5 fewer times a game than baseline in six meetings. Tilt 1.7 points toward Pittsburgh. The app’s call: New England 56 percent, 23 to 21.
Packers at Jets, Scott Novak. 85 games. The one referee this week with no home or away lean in his record (0.009). Delay of game leads his sheet by a mile (61). Green Bay has eight meetings with him and its offense has been flagged 1.6 fewer times a game than baseline in them; after the Packers’ twelve flags in Minnesota, that history is the most interesting line on this card. The app’s call: Green Bay 58 percent, 25 to 23.
Browns at Buccaneers, Brad Rogers. 85 games. Delay of game (59) and roughing the passer (33) lead. Six meetings with Cleveland, five with Tampa Bay, both offenses flagged slightly less than baseline with him. Tilt 2.4 points toward Cleveland. The app’s call: Tampa Bay 59 percent, 27 to 24.
Eagles at Titans, Clay Martin. 90 games. The quietest referee on the board: 1.1 flags a game himself against the 1.6 average, the fewest of any week 2 crew. Both offenses have been flagged less than baseline with him (Tennessee 1.4 fewer a game over six meetings, Philadelphia 0.8 fewer over seven). Tilt 1.6 points toward Philadelphia. The app’s call: Philadelphia 62 percent, 26 to 22.
Jaguars at Broncos, John Hussey. 89 games. Unnecessary roughness (41) is nearly level with delay of game (44) on his sheet, which is rare, and his 70 replay reviews overturned trail only Clete Blakeman’s 71 on this week’s slate. Denver’s offense has been flagged a full flag a game less than baseline in six meetings. Tilt 1.7 points toward Jacksonville. The app’s call: Jacksonville 56 percent, 25 to 23.
Raiders at Chargers, Bill Vinovich. 90 games. Vinovich’s crew was not on the week 1 slate. His sheet is light on the referee’s own flags (1.3 a game) and his late-game rate is the lowest on the board, 2.6 percent of his flags coming in the last five minutes against a league mark near 9. Seven meetings with Las Vegas, six with Los Angeles, neither offense far from baseline. Tilt 1.5 points toward Las Vegas. The app’s call: Chargers 59 percent, 25 to 22.
Seahawks at Cardinals, Alan Eck. 88 games. Offensive holding is Eck’s signature call (61), and the app has posted a penalty-risk flag on both offenses for it: Arizona gets called for it 1.2 times a game and Seattle 1.0, and it is among his most-called flags. Both crew histories are small (three and two meetings). Tilt 1.6 points toward Seattle. The app’s call: Seattle 56 percent on the road, 28 to 26, the second-highest total of the week.
Commanders at Cowboys, Shawn Hochuli. 89 games. Roughing the passer leads his own sheet (50), the only referee this week for whom it does, with unnecessary roughness right behind (47). His crew called Green Bay for twelve flags on Sunday. Seven meetings with Dallas, five with Washington, both near baseline. Tilt under a point. The app’s call: Dallas 60 percent, 24 to 21.
Dolphins at 49ers, Shawn Smith. 86 games. Unnecessary roughness is his top call (57), ahead of delay of game, and his crew called the second-fewest flags of week 1 (11 in Philadelphia). San Francisco’s defense has been flagged 1.4 more times a game than baseline in seven meetings with him, the only defensive number on the board above one. Tilt 2.1 points toward Miami. The app’s call: San Francisco 68 percent, 27 to 21.
Colts at Chiefs, Craig Wrolstad. 92 games, the most experienced referee on the slate. Ten meetings with Indianapolis and its offense sits right at baseline with him, which the app calls a strong signal that there is no signal. Kansas City’s offense has been flagged a flag a game less in five. Tilt under a point. The app’s call: Kansas City 69 percent, 26 to 20.
Monday
Giants at Rams, Brad Allen. 87 games. Allen’s crew threw 23 accepted flags in Chicago at Carolina on Sunday, the most of any week 1 game, with none declined. His own sheet: delay of game, then roughing the passer (36), and his late-game rate is the highest on the board at 5.9 percent of his flags. Six meetings with New York, seven with Los Angeles; the Giants’ offense has been flagged 1.2 fewer times a game than baseline with him. Tilt 1.6 points toward New York. The app’s call: Giants 56 percent on the road, 23 to 22, the closest call of the week.
What to do with this
The crew is not the game. Over a season the referee moves a game by a point or two of win probability, and the app’s calls above already have that in them. What the crew changes is what you should expect to see: a Clark game in Chicago will have flags on the Bears’ offense, an Eck game in Arizona will have holding, a Hochuli game will have a roughing call that gets argued about on Monday. Knowing that Tuesday is the difference between watching the game and understanding it.
Every crew above is on the Refs tab of its game in the ChallengeFlag app, with the same numbers and the same samples, and the crew announcement went to everyone who has favorited a team. ChallengeFlag: NFL Companion is free on iPhone and Android. Get the app