Four teams are off this week. Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Chargers, and Washington all have byes, and none of them show up on the board below. Fourteen games instead of sixteen.
Kansas City is 5-0. The Chiefs have outscored opponents by 57 points this season, the best mark in the league, and they’ve posted a positive point differential in every one of their last four games. The call still has them as a slight underdog at Seattle, 49.4 percent, a three-and-three Lumen Field team getting the better of it by a little over a point. That’s the one number on this board most out of step with what’s actually happened through six weeks. Seattle has real positives of its own, a plus-26 point differential that’s better than its record suggests, but nothing in Seattle’s season says it should be favored over an unbeaten team playing the league’s best football right now.
Tonight opens the week with the only assigned officiating crew so far. Alan Eck has a real, sampled history with New England, five games as referee, and it tilts 1.1 percent of win probability their way. That number is baked into Chicago’s 54.9 percent at home, down a touch from where it would sit without it. Modest, not the story of the game. Chicago is four and two, playing its best football after a bad week 5, a 24-point road loss at Green Bay, and a bounce-back win over Atlanta last week. The Bears are still the right side of this number even with Eck working it.
San Francisco and Minnesota are the NFL’s two unbeaten teams, and for the first time all season both of them play an opponent that isn’t on a bye. San Francisco is 6-0, plus-67 point differential, the best in the league, and travels to Atlanta as a 57.2 percent favorite anyway, the market pricing in that Atlanta’s own form has been streaky: back-to-back 21-point wins in the middle of the season, two losses since. Minnesota is 5-0 off its bye, fourteen days of rest, hosting a two-and-four Indianapolis team at 63.8 percent.
Houston is back from a long trip. Last week’s game at Jacksonville was played at Wembley, a transatlantic flight each way for a “home” game that wasn’t. This week runs the opposite direction, nearly five thousand miles back to Reliant Stadium to host the Giants. Houston is 2-4 but has won two straight: a blowout of Tennessee two weeks ago, then a 3-point escape at Jacksonville last week. New York is 3-2-1 and still arrives as the underdog on the road, 33.7 percent.
Sunday morning, Paris
Steelers at Saints, Stade de France. Pittsburgh 63.8 percent on the road, 21.8 to 26.6. New Orleans is 2-4 with the league’s seventh-worst point differential, minus-26, and has lost three of its last four decisively. Pittsburgh is 4-2 and has posted a positive point differential in three of its last four weeks. The travel here cuts against New Orleans too: they’re the ones playing a “home” game seven time zones from home. Paris itself has been unsettled all week, curfews in two districts and more than 1,800 arrests tied to the broader unrest, and Saints players have said they’re steering clear of the areas affected. None of that moves the number. It’s one more thing New Orleans is managing in a week that already had them playing a home game across an ocean.
Sunday, early window
Browns at Titans. Cleveland 53.2 percent on the road, 19.3 to 20.4. Tennessee is 1-5 and has not strung together consecutive positive weeks all season. Cleveland is 4-2 and has been remarkably steady, nothing worse than a one-score week in its last four.
Buccaneers at Panthers. Carolina 60.9 percent at home, 25.4 to 21.7. Carolina is 3-2 and just posted its best week of the season, a 31-point result against Philadelphia. Tampa Bay is 1-5, and while their one win came off their best recent stretch, that stretch was short.
Colts at Vikings. Minnesota 63.8 percent at home, 25.8 to 21.0. Covered above: Minnesota off the bye, Indianapolis still searching for consistency at 2-4.
Giants at Texans. Houston 66.3 percent at home, 28.8 to 23.1. Covered above.
Dolphins at Jets. New York 56.9 percent at home, 21.9 to 19.6. Miami is 0-5, the league’s worst point differential at minus-62, and enters off two weeks of rest following a bye. The extra rest hasn’t been the problem for Miami this season; the roster has.
Bengals at Ravens. Baltimore 50.4 percent at home, 24.1 to 24.0, the closest number on the board. Baltimore is 4-2 and has the better record, but Cincinnati is 3-2 with its own real positives, and this is as close to a true coin flip as the week offers.
Sunday, afternoon
Rams at Raiders. Los Angeles 65.1 percent on the road, 25.4 to 30.6. The Raiders are 3-3 but have lost three straight, including a 28-point blowout two weeks back, their worst week of the season. The Rams are 2-4 but given the better of this number anyway, more on efficiency than on this year’s record.
Broncos at Cardinals. Denver 53.0 percent on the road, 23.0 to 24.0. Arizona has the league’s third-worst point differential, minus-52, four separate blowout losses this season. Denver is 4-2 and has been inconsistent week to week but has the clearly better season.
Packers at Lions. Detroit 56.4 percent at home, 29.6 to 27.4. Detroit is 3-2, coming off its bye, and the game before that break was a 24-point swing in its favor. Green Bay owns the better record at 4-2, but the home number still leans Detroit’s way.
Sunday night
Chiefs at Seahawks. Covered above. The headline number of the week.
Monday night
Cowboys at Eagles. Dallas 52.4 percent on the road, 21.2 to 22.0. Both teams are 2-4. Dallas has the better point differential, minus-8 against Philadelphia’s minus-31, which is most of the gap in this number.
In the app
Every one of these calls updates through kickoff as injury reports and crew assignments land. The live number is on the Overview tab of the game detail page before you need it.